Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$329.3

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,170

Combined PnL+$314.05

Up1 trader

Total Value$67.54

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$15.25

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 75.4¢	$834.57	$1.1K	+$272.31	49% 683-704 (1387)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 76.7¢	$572.18	$617.78	+$45.6	50% 1247-1236 (2483)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 99¢	$297.99	$300.85	+$2.86	37% 422-726 (1148)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 84.9¢	$104.71	$84.98	-$8.91	53% 1061-944 (2005)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 22.9¢	$77.51	$67.54	+$15.25	60% 2590-1698 (4288)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$20.8	$21.36	+$0.56	53% 1194-1050 (2244)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$13.22	$14.51	+$1.29	35% 579-1062 (1641)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 86¢	$7.98	$7.93	-$0.05	48% 948-1028 (1976)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 46¢	$4.6	$5	+$0.4	58% 1912-1406 (3318)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$834.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$272.31

Record

49%

683-704 (1387)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$572.18

Value

$617.78

PnL

+$45.6

Record

50%

1247-1236 (2483)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$297.99

Value

$300.85

PnL

+$2.86

Record

37%

422-726 (1148)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$104.71

Value

$84.98

PnL

-$8.91

Record

53%

1061-944 (2005)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$77.51

Value

$67.54

PnL

+$15.25

Record

60%

2590-1698 (4288)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$20.8

Value

$21.36

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

1194-1050 (2244)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$13.22

Value

$14.51

PnL

+$1.29

Record

35%

579-1062 (1641)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$7.98

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

948-1028 (1976)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

1912-1406 (3318)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.