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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$761.74

Combined PnL

-$934.47

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,077

Combined PnL-$956.11

Down8 traders

Total Value$692.87

Total Shares693

Combined PnL+$21.64

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 64.5¢	$559.67	—	-$519.84	50% 1247-1236 (2483)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$383.61	$383.99	+$0.38	46% 582-670 (1252)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 56.2¢	$106.62	$100.19	-$6.43	53% 1194-1050 (2244)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 69¢	$119.35	—	-$104.5	53% 1061-944 (2005)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 6.3¢	$4.95	$78	+$73.05	60% 2590-1698 (4288)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 35.5¢	$66.56	$68.87	+$2.31	35% 579-1062 (1641)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.7¢	$28.74	$68.87	+$40.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$37.82	—	-$37.82
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 56.4¢	$43.83	—	-$43.83	49% 683-704 (1387)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 97.3¢	$56.22	$30	-$26.22	45% 611-735 (1346)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 97.4¢	$55.94	$30	-$25.94	50% 3834-3852 (7686)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 97.3¢	$44.01	$23.52	-$20.49	46% 606-715 (1321)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 47¢	$19.82	$42.17	+$22.35	48% 937-1035 (1972)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$19.43	—	-$0.63	58% 1912-1406 (3318)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 95.8¢	$287.32	—	-$287.32	37% 422-726 (1148)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$5	+$4.95	38% 680-1107 (1787)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$559.67

Value

—

PnL

-$519.84

Record

50%

1247-1236 (2483)

Invested

$383.61

Value

$383.99

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

582-670 (1252)

Invested

$106.62

Value

$100.19

PnL

-$6.43

Record

53%

1194-1050 (2244)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$119.35

Value

—

PnL

-$104.5

Record

53%

1061-944 (2005)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$78

PnL

+$73.05

Record

60%

2590-1698 (4288)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$66.56

Value

$68.87

PnL

+$2.31

Record

35%

579-1062 (1641)

Both legs:

Down$28.7441.7¢+$40.13

Up$37.8235.5¢-$37.82

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$43.83

Value

—

PnL

-$43.83

Record

49%

683-704 (1387)

Invested

$56.22

Value

$30

PnL

-$26.22

Record

45%

611-735 (1346)

Invested

$55.94

Value

$30

PnL

-$25.94

Record

50%

3834-3852 (7686)

Invested

$44.01

Value

$23.52

PnL

-$20.49

Record

46%

606-715 (1321)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$42.17

PnL

+$22.35

Record

48%

937-1035 (1972)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$19.43

Value

—

PnL

-$0.63

Record

58%

1912-1406 (3318)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$287.32

Value

—

PnL

-$287.32

Record

37%

422-726 (1148)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$5

PnL

+$4.95

Record

38%

680-1107 (1787)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x25f29636...ef95dd

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794435300

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

0x50f7

Down — $383.99

ply-pm2

Down — $100.19

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $78

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

mo-money

Down — $30

bosona

Down — $30

almach

Down — $23.52

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