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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Down 73%

Total Value

$428.21

Combined PnL

-$502.4

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 16 top traders (69%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$428.21

Total Shares428

Combined PnL+$7.6

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL-$510

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$252.45	$255	+$2.55	98% 1814-38 (1852)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 51.4¢	$102.17	$100	+$6.53	53% 1061-944 (2005)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 50.1¢	$185.48	—	-$180.62	50% 1247-1236 (2483)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$36.07	—	-$36.07	48% 937-1035 (1972)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$40.99	$38.5	-$2.49	53% 1194-1050 (2244)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 56.5¢	$33.22	$33.96	+$0.74	35% 579-1062 (1641)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$13.2	—	-$13.2	45% 611-735 (1346)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$13.2	—	-$13.2	46% 606-715 (1321)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$13.2	—	-$13.2	50% 3834-3852 (7686)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$9.2	—	-$9.2	44% 932-1181 (2113)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.7	—	-$4.7	58% 1912-1406 (3318)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 64¢	$0.48	$0.75	+$0.27	74% 712-248 (960)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 37¢	$171.03	—	-$171.03	49% 683-704 (1387)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 27.7¢	$65.23	—	-$65.23	60% 2590-1698 (4288)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 680-1107 (1787)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$3.5	—	-$3.5	48% 948-1028 (1976)

Invested

$252.45

Value

$255

PnL

+$2.55

Record

98%

1814-38 (1852)

Invested

$102.17

Value

$100

PnL

+$6.53

Record

53%

1061-944 (2005)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$185.48

Value

—

PnL

-$180.62

Record

50%

1247-1236 (2483)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$36.07

Value

—

PnL

-$36.07

Record

48%

937-1035 (1972)

Invested

$40.99

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$2.49

Record

53%

1194-1050 (2244)

Invested

$33.22

Value

$33.96

PnL

+$0.74

Record

35%

579-1062 (1641)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

—

PnL

-$13.2

Record

45%

611-735 (1346)

Invested

$13.2

Value

—

PnL

-$13.2

Record

46%

606-715 (1321)

Invested

$13.2

Value

—

PnL

-$13.2

Record

50%

3834-3852 (7686)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

—

PnL

-$9.2

Record

44%

932-1181 (2113)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

—

PnL

-$4.7

Record

58%

1912-1406 (3318)

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$0.27

Record

74%

712-248 (960)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$171.03

Value

—

PnL

-$171.03

Record

49%

683-704 (1387)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$65.23

Value

—

PnL

-$65.23

Record

60%

2590-1698 (4288)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

680-1107 (1787)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

—

PnL

-$3.5

Record

48%

948-1028 (1976)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 16 top traders (69%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x76008b5c...8f7958

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794434400

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $255

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $100

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $38.5

13897651

Up — $33.96

mo-money

Down — $0

almach

Down — $0

bosona

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

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