Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 100¢ · $947 held · ends Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

Total Value

$946.8

Combined PnL

-$144.22

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 99.7¢

+35% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$838.06

Total Shares867

Combined PnL+$1.36

Up6 traders

Total Value$108.74

Total Shares447

Combined PnL-$145.58

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Up 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 73.3¢	$581.41	$553.15	-$28.26	50% 1247-1236 (2483)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 64.4¢	$72.81	$112.6	+$39.79	60% 2590-1698 (4288)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 59.9¢	$212.02	$97.49	-$114.08	49% 683-704 (1387)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$71.29	$66.78	-$4.5	53% 1194-1050 (2244)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$59.2	$54.86	-$3.94	53% 1061-944 (2005)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$42.28	$41.06	+$2.61	37% 422-726 (1148)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 99.3¢	$13.95	$9.61	-$4.34	50% 3834-3852 (7686)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$9.3	$4.5	-$4.8	45% 611-735 (1346)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 33.6¢	$43.73	$2.93	-$22.69	35% 579-1062 (1641)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$4.5	$2.25	-$2.25	46% 606-715 (1321)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$14.03	$1.51	+$3.43	58% 1912-1406 (3318)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$5.25	$0.06	-$5.19	74% 712-248 (960)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$581.41

Value

$553.15

PnL

-$28.26

Record

50%

1247-1236 (2483)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$72.81

Value

$112.6

PnL

+$39.79

Record

60%

2590-1698 (4288)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$212.02

Value

$97.49

PnL

-$114.08

Record

49%

683-704 (1387)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$71.29

Value

$66.78

PnL

-$4.5

Record

53%

1194-1050 (2244)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$59.2

Value

$54.86

PnL

-$3.94

Record

53%

1061-944 (2005)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$42.28

Value

$41.06

PnL

+$2.61

Record

37%

422-726 (1148)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$13.95

Value

$9.61

PnL

-$4.34

Record

50%

3834-3852 (7686)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$4.8

Record

45%

611-735 (1346)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$43.73

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$22.69

Record

35%

579-1062 (1641)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$2.25

Record

46%

606-715 (1321)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$14.03

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$3.43

Record

58%

1912-1406 (3318)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.19

Record

74%

712-248 (960)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Up 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.