Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 100¢ · $438 held · ended Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$438.42

Combined PnL

$67.19

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$438.16

Total Shares440

Combined PnL+$67.03

Up1 trader

Total Value$0.18

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.16

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 78¢	$117.58	$109.26	-$8.33	50% 1234-1231 (2465)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$46.51	$88.09	+$41.58	60% 2586-1691 (4277)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 70¢	$54.25	$77.46	+$23.21	49% 679-696 (1375)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$49.97	$48.58	-$1.39	53% 1174-1038 (2212)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$48.51	$44.59	-$3.92	98% 1784-38 (1822)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$33.47	$35.39	+$1.92	35% 569-1056 (1625)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$15.84	$25.7	+$9.86	47% 556-618 (1174)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5	$9.1	+$4.1	44% 914-1162 (2076)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.02	$0.18	+$0.16	53% 1052-936 (1988)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$117.58

Value

$109.26

PnL

-$8.33

Record

50%

1234-1231 (2465)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$46.51

Value

$88.09

PnL

+$41.58

Record

60%

2586-1691 (4277)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$54.25

Value

$77.46

PnL

+$23.21

Record

49%

679-696 (1375)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$49.97

Value

$48.58

PnL

-$1.39

Record

53%

1174-1038 (2212)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$48.51

Value

$44.59

PnL

-$3.92

Record

98%

1784-38 (1822)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$33.47

Value

$35.39

PnL

+$1.92

Record

35%

569-1056 (1625)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$15.84

Value

$25.7

PnL

+$9.86

Record

47%

556-618 (1174)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$4.1

Record

44%

914-1162 (2076)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

1052-936 (1988)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.