Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (31%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$53.07

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 99.5¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,599

Combined PnL+$31.21

Down9 traders

Total Value$27.98

Total Shares576

Combined PnL-$84.28

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 63.4¢	$1.0K	$975.88	-$16.08	50% 1187-1186 (2373)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$464.31	$466.66	+$2.34	98% 1733-37 (1770)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$175.87	$193.07	+$17.2	60% 2568-1681 (4249)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.8¢	$120	$123.84	+$3.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.6¢	$55.87	$69.23	+$13.36
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$182.72	$166.35	-$16.36	53% 1135-1010 (2145)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.6¢	$107.71	$120.09	+$12.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.4¢	$75.01	$46.26	-$28.75
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 47.9¢	$61.85	$88.14	+$26.29	35% 553-1041 (1594)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$41.35	$60	+$18.65	53% 1030-912 (1942)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$6	$8.4	+$2.4	45% 584-705 (1289)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$6.3	$8.4	+$2.1	46% 578-687 (1265)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$5.94	$5.74	-$0.2	36% 395-700 (1095)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 29.2¢	$21.41	$1.86	-$1.81	58% 1820-1334 (3154)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 3.1¢	$10.28	$1.65	-$8.64	44% 880-1138 (2018)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 21.6¢	$0.89	$1.15	+$0.26	50% 3804-3824 (7628)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$72	$0.59	-$71.41	45% 81-101 (182)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 22.3¢	$7.12	$0.16	-$6.96	48% 909-982 (1891)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.03	-$0.03	38% 647-1050 (1697)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,023.8

Value

$975.88

PnL

-$16.08

Record

50%

1187-1186 (2373)

hoodquant

Invested

$464.31

Value

$466.66

PnL

+$2.34

Record

98%

1733-37 (1770)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100

Invested

$175.87

Value

$193.07

PnL

+$17.2

Record

60%

2568-1681 (4249)

Both legs:

Up$12069.8¢+$3.84

Down$55.8722.6¢+$13.36

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$182.72

Value

$166.35

PnL

-$16.36

Record

53%

1135-1010 (2145)

Both legs:

Up$107.7164.6¢+$12.39

Down$75.0145.4¢-$28.75

13897651<$100

Invested

$61.85

Value

$88.14

PnL

+$26.29

Record

35%

553-1041 (1594)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$41.35

Value

$60

PnL

+$18.65

Record

53%

1030-912 (1942)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$2.4

Record

45%

584-705 (1289)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.3

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$2.1

Record

46%

578-687 (1265)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$0.2

Record

36%

395-700 (1095)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.41

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$1.81

Record

58%

1820-1334 (3154)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.28

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$8.64

Record

44%

880-1138 (2018)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

3804-3824 (7628)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$71.41

Record

45%

81-101 (182)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.12

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$6.96

Record

48%

909-982 (1891)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

647-1050 (1697)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.