Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$62.73

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,357

Combined PnL+$79.82

Down3 traders

Total Value$136.03

Total Shares283

Combined PnL-$17.09

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 67.5¢	$381.92	$490.98	+$109.07	51% 1054-1033 (2087)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$307.2	$308.75	+$1.55	98% 1594-33 (1627)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 65.3¢	$293.61	$238.28	-$55.32	61% 2536-1645 (4181)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 55.6¢	$162.32	$184.88	+$38.15	53% 938-848 (1786)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 48.9¢	$102.41	$104.64	+$2.24	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$69.82	$65.26	-$4.56	53% 1050-932 (1982)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 75¢	$40.44	$30	-$10.44	45% 534-658 (1192)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 29.7¢	$26.73	$25.3	-$1.43	34% 517-1000 (1517)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 60¢	$12	$19.9	+$7.9	48% 838-904 (1742)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 75¢	$20.25	$13.01	-$6.44	50% 3755-3780 (7535)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$30.24	$6.08	-$17.9	45% 526-642 (1168)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 52¢	$2.2	$2.12	-$0.08	47% 485-549 (1034)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$381.92

Value

$490.98

PnL

+$109.07

Record

51%

1054-1033 (2087)

hoodquant

Invested

$307.2

Value

$308.75

PnL

+$1.55

Record

98%

1594-33 (1627)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$293.61

Value

$238.28

PnL

-$55.32

Record

61%

2536-1645 (4181)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$162.32

Value

$184.88

PnL

+$38.15

Record

53%

938-848 (1786)

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$102.41

Value

$104.64

PnL

+$2.24

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$69.82

Value

$65.26

PnL

-$4.56

Record

53%

1050-932 (1982)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$40.44

Value

$30

PnL

-$10.44

Record

45%

534-658 (1192)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.73

Value

$25.3

PnL

-$1.43

Record

34%

517-1000 (1517)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$7.9

Record

48%

838-904 (1742)

bosona<$100

Invested

$20.25

Value

$13.01

PnL

-$6.44

Record

50%

3755-3780 (7535)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.24

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$17.9

Record

45%

526-642 (1168)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

485-549 (1034)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.