Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 100¢ · $364 held · ended Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

Total Value

$364.17

Combined PnL

$67.14

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 100¢

+55% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$363.76

Total Shares376

Combined PnL+$89.18

Up2 traders

Total Value$0.41

Total Shares666

Combined PnL-$22.04

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Downavg 49¢	$97.47	$183.46	+$85.99	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 96.5¢	$132.65	$81.53	-$22.97	53% 938-848 (1786)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 73¢	$29.94	$40.33	+$10.39	51% 1054-1033 (2087)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$25.59	$38.42	+$12.83	61% 2536-1645 (4181)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$10.58	$10.62	+$0.04	34% 517-1000 (1517)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 65¢	$6.5	$9.4	+$2.9	53% 1050-932 (1982)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 3.4¢	$22.3	$0.33	-$21.98	37% 374-624 (998)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.15	$0.08	-$0.07	38% 603-967 (1570)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$97.47

Value

$183.46

PnL

+$85.99

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$132.65

Value

$81.53

PnL

-$22.97

Record

53%

938-848 (1786)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$29.94

Value

$40.33

PnL

+$10.39

Record

51%

1054-1033 (2087)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$25.59

Value

$38.42

PnL

+$12.83

Record

61%

2536-1645 (4181)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$10.58

Value

$10.62

PnL

+$0.04

Record

34%

517-1000 (1517)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$6.5

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$2.9

Record

53%

1050-932 (1982)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$22.3

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$21.98

Record

37%

374-624 (998)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.07

Record

38%

603-967 (1570)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.