Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (58%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$68.44

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$735.19

Total Shares790

Combined PnL+$92.82

Down5 traders

Total Value$43.48

Total Shares894

Combined PnL-$161.26

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 74.2¢	$615.3	$574.3	-$28.2	51% 1009-957 (1966)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.2¢	$395.12	$444.58	+$47.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.1¢	$205.34	$129.72	-$75.62
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 76.1¢	$311.93	$409.8	+$97.87	61% 2518-1634 (4152)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 67.4¢	$172.13	$169.59	-$2.54	53% 1020-898 (1918)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$54.76	$58.51	+$3.75	34% 505-980 (1485)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 56¢	$58.04	$51.82	-$6.22	47% 473-529 (1002)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$23.31	$31.07	+$7.75	53% 908-821 (1729)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 28.4¢	$21.5	$21.74	+$0.24	48% 807-866 (1673)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$14.5	$15.11	+$0.6	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 65¢	$6.5	$10	+$3.5	44% 71-92 (163)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$19.65	$4.41	-$11.29	58% 1605-1176 (2781)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Downavg 20.7¢	$165.48	$4	-$161.48	38% 369-603 (972)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$3.2	$2.6	-$0.6	44% 798-998 (1796)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.03	-$0.03	39% 586-930 (1516)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$615.3

Value

$574.3

PnL

-$28.2

Record

51%

1009-957 (1966)

Both legs:

Up$395.1274.2¢+$47.42

Down$205.3426.1¢-$75.62

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$311.93

Value

$409.8

PnL

+$97.87

Record

61%

2518-1634 (4152)

ply-pm2

Invested

$172.13

Value

$169.59

PnL

-$2.54

Record

53%

1020-898 (1918)

13897651<$100

Invested

$54.76

Value

$58.51

PnL

+$3.75

Record

34%

505-980 (1485)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$58.04

Value

$51.82

PnL

-$6.22

Record

47%

473-529 (1002)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$23.31

Value

$31.07

PnL

+$7.75

Record

53%

908-821 (1729)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.5

Value

$21.74

PnL

+$0.24

Record

48%

807-866 (1673)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.5

Value

$15.11

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.5

Record

44%

71-92 (163)

ByteBadger92<$100

Invested

$19.65

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$11.29

Record

58%

1605-1176 (2781)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Down

Invested

$165.48

Value

PnL

-$161.48

Record

38%

369-603 (972)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.6

Record

44%

798-998 (1796)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

39%

586-930 (1516)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.