Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$191.69

Combined PnL

-$736.46

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares994
Combined PnL-$757.55
Down3 traders
Total Value$117.53
Total Shares118
Combined PnL+$21.09
Up — 67%Down — 33%
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR
Up

Invested

$329.88

Value

—

PnL

-$329.88

Record

51%

933-914 (1847)

PL
ply-pm2CTR
Up

Invested

$124.93

Value

—

PnL

-$124.93

Record

53%

969-866 (1835)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$80.09

Value

$81

PnL

+$0.91

Record

98%

1499-31 (1530)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100
Down

Invested

$58.41

Value

$74.16

PnL

+$15.75

Record

53%

887-786 (1673)

Both legs:

Down$33.2544.8¢+$40.91
Up$25.1634¢-$25.16
13
13897651CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$58.26

Value

—

PnL

-$58.26

Record

34%

488-967 (1455)

BoneOhio<$100
Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

$21.53

PnL

+$11.33

Record

74%

577-199 (776)

ohioism<$100
Down

Invested

$15.25

Value

$15

PnL

+$8.85

Record

48%

779-832 (1611)

BY
ByteBadger92CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.79

Value

—

PnL

+$0.51

Record

58%

1531-1106 (2637)

38
38791873984189CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.39

Value

—

PnL

-$1.39

Record

48%

1257-1350 (2607)

0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR
Up

Invested

$243.59

Value

—

PnL

-$243.59

Record

61%

2482-1593 (4075)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x5e21d16e...c6a53f
Slug
eth-updown-15m-1794393000

Traders in this Market

0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$329.88
PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Up — $0

-$124.93
HO

hoodquant

Down — $81

+$0.91

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$15.75
13

13897651

CTR

Up — $0

-$58.26

BoneOhio

Down — $21.53

+$11.33

ohioism

Down — $15

+$8.85
BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

+$0.51
38

38791873984189

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.39
0X

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

CTR

Up — $0

-$243.59
Trade on Polymarket