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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 63%

Total Value

$230

Combined PnL

-$268.26

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$230

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$147.54

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$415.8

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 23.7¢	$45.1	$190	+$144.9	62% 2398-1492 (3890)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 42.9¢	$352.9	—	-$308.29	51% 894-867 (1761)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$54.3	—	-$54.3	33% 452-936 (1388)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$46.34	—	-$46.34	53% 897-807 (1704)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 94.8¢	$23.71	$25	+$1.29	53% 825-745 (1570)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 91¢	$13.65	$15	+$1.35	75% 532-179 (711)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.33	—	-$4.33	45% 694-845 (1539)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.55	—	-$2.55	48% 718-774 (1492)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$45.1

Value

$190

PnL

+$144.9

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$352.9

Value

—

PnL

-$308.29

Record

51%

894-867 (1761)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$54.3

Value

—

PnL

-$54.3

Record

33%

452-936 (1388)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$46.34

Value

—

PnL

-$46.34

Record

53%

897-807 (1704)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$23.71

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.29

Record

53%

825-745 (1570)

Invested

$13.65

Value

$15

PnL

+$1.35

Record

75%

532-179 (711)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

—

PnL

-$4.33

Record

45%

694-845 (1539)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

—

PnL

-$2.55

Record

48%

718-774 (1492)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xde1f5b7f...f20fb8

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794378600

Traders in this Market

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $190

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

13897651

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $25

BoneOhio

Down — $15

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

ohioism

Up — $0

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