Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (45%) · Down at 100¢ · $429 held · ends Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 45%

Total Value

$429.34

Combined PnL

$51.61

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 100¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$337.04

Total Shares336

Combined PnL+$53.41

Up6 traders

Total Value$92.3

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$1.8

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 81.1¢	$153	$188.64	+$35.64	62% 2389-1477 (3866)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$70.73	$80.99	+$14.31	53% 815-736 (1551)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$35.15	$35.68	+$0.53	53% 882-792 (1674)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$30.55	$32.51	+$1.95	45% 680-835 (1515)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 46.1¢	$26.01	$28.22	+$2.21	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 88¢	$17.6	$19.99	+$2.39	74% 517-177 (694)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$11.13	$11.85	+$0.71	47% 416-463 (879)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 76¢	$11.2	$11.75	+$0.55	44% 697-874 (1571)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 32.5¢	$13	$9.8	-$3.2	48% 708-758 (1466)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$18.35	$9.15	-$3.05	32% 443-928 (1371)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 42.1¢	$14.61	$0.78	-$0.43	58% 1397-994 (2391)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$153

Value

$188.64

PnL

+$35.64

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$70.73

Value

$80.99

PnL

+$14.31

Record

53%

815-736 (1551)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$35.15

Value

$35.68

PnL

+$0.53

Record

53%

882-792 (1674)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$30.55

Value

$32.51

PnL

+$1.95

Record

45%

680-835 (1515)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$26.01

Value

$28.22

PnL

+$2.21

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$17.6

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$2.39

Record

74%

517-177 (694)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$11.13

Value

$11.85

PnL

+$0.71

Record

47%

416-463 (879)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$0.55

Record

44%

697-874 (1571)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$3.2

Record

48%

708-758 (1466)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$18.35

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$3.05

Record

32%

443-928 (1371)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$14.61

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.43

Record

58%

1397-994 (2391)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.