Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 100¢ · $162 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 100%
$161.69
$0.99
80¢ → 100¢
+25% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $65.11 | $57.98 | +$4.83 | 52% 800-726 (1526) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 75.4¢ | $32.1 | $34.11 | +$2.01 | 53% 869-777 (1646) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 69.1¢ | $34.01 | $31.11 | -$2.89 | 32% 435-921 (1356) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Upavg 83.4¢ | $29.82 | $28.5 | -$0.66 | 62% 2365-1458 (3823) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $7.7 | $5 | -$2.7 | 59% 1376-973 (2349) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $5 | +$0.4 | 48% 412-450 (862) |
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$65.11
Value
$57.98
PnL
+$4.83
Record
52%
800-726 (1526)
Invested
$32.1
Value
$34.11
PnL
+$2.01
Record
53%
869-777 (1646)
Invested
$34.01
Value
$31.11
PnL
-$2.89
Record
32%
435-921 (1356)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$28.5
PnL
-$0.66
Record
62%
2365-1458 (3823)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.7
Record
59%
1376-973 (2349)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.4
Record
48%
412-450 (862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.