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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 25%

Total Value

$350.17

Combined PnL

-$108.13

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares403

Combined PnL-$150.88

Down6 traders

Total Value$350.17

Total Shares350

Combined PnL+$42.74

Up — 25%Down — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 37.3¢	$148.96	—	-$148.96	59% 3086-2168 (5254)
13 13897651	Downavg 62.4¢	$127.91	$128.03	+$0.12	56% 8866-6930 (15796)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 94.1¢	$65.9	$70	+$4.1	63% 60944-35403 (96347)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$64.08	$66.56	+$2.48	51% 10636-10090 (20726)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$20.98	$40	+$19.02	61% 46157-29334 (75491)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 58.4¢	$19.82	$25.58	+$5.76	65% 114664-61694 (176358)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$8.74	$20	+$11.26	56% 60630-47159 (107789)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$1.92	—	-$1.92	63% 42492-25240 (67732)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$148.96

Value

—

PnL

-$148.96

Record

59%

3086-2168 (5254)

Invested

$127.91

Value

$128.03

PnL

+$0.12

Record

56%

8866-6930 (15796)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$65.9

Value

$70

PnL

+$4.1

Record

63%

60944-35403 (96347)

Invested

$64.08

Value

$66.56

PnL

+$2.48

Record

51%

10636-10090 (20726)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$20.98

Value

$40

PnL

+$19.02

Record

61%

46157-29334 (75491)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$25.58

PnL

+$5.76

Record

65%

114664-61694 (176358)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$8.74

Value

$20

PnL

+$11.26

Record

56%

60630-47159 (107789)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

—

PnL

-$1.92

Record

63%

42492-25240 (67732)

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2c9c5297...80d9cb

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794029400

Traders in this Market

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

13897651

Down — $128.03

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $70

ply-pm2

Down — $66.56

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $40

antsaslyku

Down — $25.58

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $20

ohioism

Up — $0

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