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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 71%

Total Value

$191.11

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Signal

Up

10 of 14 top traders (71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down4 traders

Total Value$191.11

Total Shares191

Combined PnL+$11.82

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 63.5¢	$569.12	—	-$569.12	67% 101382-49705 (151087)
13 13897651	Downavg 50.1¢	$98.33	$103.11	+$4.78	56% 7911-6145 (14056)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$92.03	—	-$92.03	51% 9566-9156 (18722)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 37.7¢	$60.86	—	-$60.86	3% 23-685 (708)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99.1¢	$57.46	$58	+$0.54	91% 26742-2516 (29258)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$54.66	—	-$50.29	63% 60039-34531 (94570)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 75.6¢	$258.36	—	-$258.36	57% 76504-58856 (135360)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 82¢	$20.5	$25	+$4.5	62% 45238-28305 (73543)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 40.3¢	$9.25	—	-$9.25	48% 9790-10702 (20492)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 77.8¢	$15.59	—	-$15.59	63% 41674-24305 (65979)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$6.27	—	-$6.27	74% 104319-36841 (141160)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 36.6¢	$3	$5	+$2	52% 93032-87450 (180482)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$2.26	—	-$2.26	65% 113883-60771 (174654)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$1.88	—	-$1.88	58% 62267-45634 (107901)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$569.12

Value

—

PnL

-$569.12

Record

67%

101382-49705 (151087)

Invested

$98.33

Value

$103.11

PnL

+$4.78

Record

56%

7911-6145 (14056)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$92.03

Value

—

PnL

-$92.03

Record

51%

9566-9156 (18722)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$60.86

Value

—

PnL

-$60.86

Record

3%

23-685 (708)

Invested

$57.46

Value

$58

PnL

+$0.54

Record

91%

26742-2516 (29258)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$54.66

Value

—

PnL

-$50.29

Record

63%

60039-34531 (94570)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$258.36

Value

—

PnL

-$258.36

Record

57%

76504-58856 (135360)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$20.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$4.5

Record

62%

45238-28305 (73543)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

—

PnL

-$9.25

Record

48%

9790-10702 (20492)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$15.59

Value

—

PnL

-$15.59

Record

63%

41674-24305 (65979)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$6.27

Value

—

PnL

-$6.27

Record

74%

104319-36841 (141160)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$3

Value

$5

PnL

+$2

Record

52%

93032-87450 (180482)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

—

PnL

-$2.26

Record

65%

113883-60771 (174654)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

—

PnL

-$1.88

Record

58%

62267-45634 (107901)

Smart Money Signal

Up

10 of 14 top traders (71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x06a0ce46...3b3373

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793801700

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

13897651

Down — $103.11

ply-pm2

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $58

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $25

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

ohioism

Up — $0

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