Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Up 78%
2 arb excluded
$3.0K
$49.73
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 66.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$143.8 | 57% 72544-55201 (127745) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.6¢ | $711.49 | $1.1K | +$356.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.7¢ | $500.15 | — | -$500.15 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$19.99 | 93% 24866-1838 (26704) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 58.5¢ | $519.94 | $504.47 | -$15.47 | 54% 15487-13374 (28861) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.5¢ | $295.16 | $504.47 | +$209.32 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.2¢ | $224.78 | — | -$224.78 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 72.6¢ | $143.95 | $140 | -$3.95 | 52% 8826-8271 (17097) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $38.33 | $64.14 | +$26.71 | 64% 25897-14422 (40319) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $22.5 | $23 | +$0.5 | 55% 49094-40582 (89676) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 45.3¢ | $19.23 | $22.57 | +$3.34 | 59% 7232-5095 (12327) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 75.3¢ | $15.06 | $20 | +$4.94 | 51% 20517-19606 (40123) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $9.51 | $8 | -$1.51 | 52% 91929-86332 (178261) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 65% 113036-59840 (172876) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.2 | — | -$0.2 | 58% 61491-44895 (106386) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 51158-41686 (92844) |
Invested
$1,211.64
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$143.8
Record
57%
72544-55201 (127745)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,089.88
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$19.99
Record
93%
24866-1838 (26704)
Invested
$519.94
Value
$504.47
PnL
-$15.47
Record
54%
15487-13374 (28861)
Both legs:
Invested
$143.95
Value
$140
PnL
-$3.95
Record
52%
8826-8271 (17097)
Invested
$38.33
Value
$64.14
PnL
+$26.71
Record
64%
25897-14422 (40319)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$23
PnL
+$0.5
Record
55%
49094-40582 (89676)
Invested
$19.23
Value
$22.57
PnL
+$3.34
Record
59%
7232-5095 (12327)
Invested
$15.06
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.94
Record
51%
20517-19606 (40123)
Invested
$9.51
Value
$8
PnL
-$1.51
Record
52%
91929-86332 (178261)
Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
65%
113036-59840 (172876)
Invested
$0.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
61491-44895 (106386)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
51158-41686 (92844)