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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 20%

Total Value

$883.36

Combined PnL

-$411.64

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 15 top traders (20%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares519
Combined PnL-$660.67
Down12 traders
Total Value$883.36
Total Shares883
Combined PnL+$249.04
Up — 20%Down — 80%
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR
Up

Invested

$652.12

Value

—

PnL

-$652.12

Record

67%

100201-48634 (148835)

TM
tmsd-test
Down

Invested

$117.95

Value

$235.5

PnL

+$117.56

Record

54%

14606-12467 (27073)

PL
ply-pm2
Down

Invested

$139.52

Value

$139.1

PnL

-$0.43

Record

52%

8720-8176 (16896)

UN
uninformedfloww
Down

Invested

$66.06

Value

$125

PnL

+$58.94

Record

57%

72361-55060 (127421)

G-Penis-Monster
Down

Invested

$77.49

Value

$100

PnL

+$22.51

Record

62%

44500-27446 (71946)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$61.22

Value

$62.47

PnL

+$1.25

Record

93%

24712-1827 (26539)

AS
aswfadq1555<$100
Down

Invested

$36.9

Value

$50

PnL

+$13.1

Record

54%

15451-13344 (28795)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$45

Value

$50

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

58856-45465 (104321)

BoneOhio<$100
Down

Invested

$30.3

Value

$40

PnL

+$9.7

Record

74%

103372-36608 (139980)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$26.63

Value

$27.96

PnL

+$1.33

Record

58%

61328-44778 (106106)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$20.4

Value

$20

PnL

+$3.23

Record

64%

25690-14265 (39955)

AN
antsaslyku<$100
Down

Invested

$10

Value

$13.33

PnL

+$3.33

Record

65%

112816-59667 (172483)

ohioism<$100
Down

Invested

$6.5

Value

$20

PnL

+$13.5

Record

63%

40871-23500 (64371)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.5

Value

—

PnL

-$5.5

Record

52%

91694-86058 (177752)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.05

Value

—

PnL

-$3.05

Record

55%

18785-15358 (34143)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xc26ebc84...3f3f69
Slug
eth-updown-15m-1793602800

Traders in this Market

0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$652.12
TM

tmsd-test

Down — $235.5

+$117.56
PL

ply-pm2

Down — $139.1

-$0.43
UN

uninformedfloww

Down — $125

+$58.94

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $100

+$22.51
HO

hoodquant

Down — $62.47

+$1.25
AS

aswfadq1555

Down — $50

+$13.1
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $50

+$5

BoneOhio

Down — $40

+$9.7
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $27.96

+$1.33
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