Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Up 56%
2 arb excluded
$546.24
-$74.26
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.7¢ | $214.51 | $217.32 | +$2.81 | 93% 24266-1810 (26076) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 42.8¢ | $104.49 | $131.01 | +$26.52 | 64% 58887-33445 (92332) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.6¢ | $47.9 | $131.01 | +$83.11 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.8¢ | $56.59 | — | -$56.59 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $109.01 | $112.22 | +$3.22 | 51% 8377-7904 (16281) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.7¢ | $66.95 | $112.22 | +$45.27 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.6¢ | $42.05 | — | -$42.05 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $60.35 | — | -$60.35 | 55% 18348-14925 (33273) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.5¢ | $32.48 | — | -$32.48 | 54% 14575-12419 (26994) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 63.3¢ | $48.23 | $46.47 | +$14.83 | 64% 24825-13713 (38538) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 58.2¢ | $14.9 | $25.52 | +$10.62 | 65% 112549-59391 (171940) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $6.99 | $8.7 | +$1.71 | 52% 91284-85731 (177015) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 41.5¢ | $8.3 | — | -$8.3 | 58% 61065-44595 (105660) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $3.4 | $5 | +$1.6 | 62% 44267-27240 (71507) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.7 | — | -$4.7 | 56% 58613-45263 (103876) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 54.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20362-19448 (39810) |
Invested
$214.51
Value
$217.32
PnL
+$2.81
Record
93%
24266-1810 (26076)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$104.49
Value
$131.01
PnL
+$26.52
Record
64%
58887-33445 (92332)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.01
Value
$112.22
PnL
+$3.22
Record
51%
8377-7904 (16281)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.35
Value
—
PnL
-$60.35
Record
55%
18348-14925 (33273)
Invested
$32.48
Value
—
PnL
-$32.48
Record
54%
14575-12419 (26994)
Invested
$48.23
Value
$46.47
PnL
+$14.83
Record
64%
24825-13713 (38538)
Invested
$14.9
Value
$25.52
PnL
+$10.62
Record
65%
112549-59391 (171940)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$8.7
PnL
+$1.71
Record
52%
91284-85731 (177015)
Invested
$8.3
Value
—
PnL
-$8.3
Record
58%
61065-44595 (105660)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.6
Record
62%
44267-27240 (71507)
Invested
$4.7
Value
—
PnL
-$4.7
Record
56%
58613-45263 (103876)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20362-19448 (39810)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $217.32
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $46.47
antsaslyku
Up — $25.52
dvasdkasodk
Up — $8.7
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $5