Will Tartu JK Tammeka win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 99¢ · $529 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$529.03
$28.94
70.2¢ → 99.3¢
+41% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 69.8¢ | $296.37 | $414.15 | +$117.78 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $53.69 | $77.65 | +$23.96 | 51% 6510-6274 (12784) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $14.43 | $14.25 | -$0.18 | 75% 1979-673 (2652) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $10 | $10.15 | -$0.38 | 53% 2691-2371 (5062) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 33.2¢ | $121.16 | $9.26 | -$111.89 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $2.22 | $1.92 | -$0.3 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $1.7 | $1.65 | -$0.05 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
Invested
$296.37
Value
$414.15
PnL
+$117.78
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$53.69
Value
$77.65
PnL
+$23.96
Record
51%
6510-6274 (12784)
Invested
$14.43
Value
$14.25
PnL
-$0.18
Record
75%
1979-673 (2652)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.15
PnL
-$0.38
Record
53%
2691-2371 (5062)
Invested
$121.16
Value
$9.26
PnL
-$111.89
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Invested
$2.22
Value
$1.92
PnL
-$0.3
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.