Will Nomme Kalju FC win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$156.17
80.7¢ → 81¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 80.7¢ | $1.1K | $994.81 | -$154.41 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 33.4¢ | $558.48 | $374.92 | -$183.57 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.4¢ | $463.72 | $277.45 | -$186.27 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.8¢ | $94.76 | $97.47 | +$2.7 | |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $17.92 | $16.29 | -$1.63 | 51% 6512-6276 (12788) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $9.97 | $9.84 | -$0.19 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $3.9 | +$0.05 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
Invested
$1,149.22
Value
$994.81
PnL
-$154.41
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
Invested
$558.48
Value
$374.92
PnL
-$183.57
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Both legs:
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$17.92
Value
$16.29
PnL
-$1.63
Record
51%
6512-6276 (12788)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.84
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.