Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Real Union de Irun win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 25¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes76¢No24¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$103.13

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 24.5¢

-59% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$572.08

Total Shares1,613

Combined PnL-$85.16

No6 traders

Total Value$843.36

Total Shares1,456

Combined PnL-$17.97

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 40.7¢	$579.45	$490.91	-$88.54	9% 30-286 (316)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 59.5¢	$476	$464	-$12	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 59¢	$319.73	$314.31	-$5.42	35% 440-800 (1240)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$60.3	$64.28	+$3.98	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$47.79	$46.98	-$0.81	56% 463-370 (833)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$11.6	$11.8	+$0.2	36% 948-1669 (2617)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$9	$8.77	-$0.23	38% 544-884 (1428)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$8.5	$8.13	-$0.37	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$3.36	$3.32	-$0.04	36% 933-1644 (2577)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.95	+$0.1	37% 960-1662 (2622)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$579.45

Value

$490.91

PnL

-$88.54

Record

30-286 (316)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$476

Value

$464

PnL

-$12

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$319.73

Value

$314.31

PnL

-$5.42

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

Flaznorp<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.3

Value

$64.28

PnL

+$3.98

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$47.79

Value

$46.98

PnL

-$0.81

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$11.6

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.77

PnL

-$0.23

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$0.37

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.