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VeryLucky888YesNoYesNo
tradecraft<$100YesYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-11-14?
Resolved Yes. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
No 43%
Total Value
$280.29
Combined PnL
-$11.8
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$280.29
Total Shares280
Combined PnL+$125.48
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares285
Combined PnL-$137.28
Yes — 57%No — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $191.84 | +$95.84 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 50.3¢ | $113.08 | — | -$113.08 | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $45.58 | $62.44 | +$16.86 | 62% 227-140 (367) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 32.1¢ | $22.41 | — | -$22.41 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
tradecraft<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $7.43 | $14.85 | +$7.43 | 32% 385-828 (1213) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $5.81 | $11.17 | +$5.36 | 53% 2249-2030 (4279) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 35% 520-947 (1467) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$100
Value
$191.84
PnL
+$95.84
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)
LI
LightParadoxCTRInvested
$113.08
Value
—
PnL
-$113.08
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
TH
thatsabing0<$100Invested
$45.58
Value
$62.44
PnL
+$16.86
Record
62%
227-140 (367)
FL
FlaznorpCTR<$100Invested
$22.41
Value
—
PnL
-$22.41
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$7.43
Value
$14.85
PnL
+$7.43
Record
32%
385-828 (1213)
GO
GoalLineGhost<$100Invested
$5.81
Value
$11.17
PnL
+$5.36
Record
53%
2249-2030 (4279)
LU
LuckyLooCTR<$100Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
35%
520-947 (1467)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x7704f730...b48cb2
Slug
es3-jae-zar-2026-11-14-zar