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VeryLucky888NoYesYes
rayvanmechelenCTRYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will CD Extremadura win on 2026-11-15?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$643.87
Combined PnL
-$128.46
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$468.36
Total Shares468
Combined PnL+$228.08
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares610
Combined PnL-$356.54
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VeryLucky888 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $240.28 | $468.36 | +$228.08 | 53% 1889-1648 (3537) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $184.75 | $175.51 | -$9.24 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51¢ | $89.51 | $175.51 | +$86 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16¢ | $95.24 | — | -$95.24 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $172.55 | — | -$172.55 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
rayvanmechelenCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $183.99 | — | -$183.99 | 16% 58-297 (355) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Noavg 50¢ | $200 | — | +$0 | 64% 145-81 (226) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$240.28
Value
$468.36
PnL
+$228.08
Record
53%
1889-1648 (3537)
GO
GoalLineGhostARB<$100Invested
$184.75
Value
$175.51
PnL
-$9.24
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Both legs:
No$89.5151¢+$86
Yes$95.2416¢-$95.24
FL
FlaznorpCTRInvested
$172.55
Value
—
PnL
-$172.55
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$183.99
Value
—
PnL
-$183.99
Record
16%
58-297 (355)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$200
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
145-81 (226)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd82c2a1b...459e58
Slug
es3-ext-pon-2026-11-15-ext