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rayvanmechelenYes
VeryLucky888CTRNoNoNoYesNo
tradecraftCTR<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will UE Sant Andreu win on 2026-11-14?
Resolved Yes. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.3K
Combined PnL
-$11.92
Smart Money Signal
No
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$1.2K
Total Shares1,232
Combined PnL+$772.26
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,251
Combined PnL-$784.18
Yes — 17%No — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
rayvanmechelen | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $459.64 | $1.2K | +$772.26 | 13% 44-292 (336) |
VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 63¢ | $384.3 | — | -$384.3 | 54% 1497-1295 (2792) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 62.5¢ | $261.88 | — | -$261.88 | 53% 2235-2015 (4250) |
BI biying99999CTR | Noavg 62¢ | $110.98 | — | -$110.98 | 36% 116-207 (323) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $78.21 | $93.5 | +$15.29 | 49% 4087-4288 (8375) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $51.01 | $93.5 | +$42.49 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68¢ | $27.2 | — | -$27.2 | |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $16.99 | — | -$16.99 | 59% 724-498 (1222) |
tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 62.3¢ | $10.03 | — | -$10.03 | 31% 376-824 (1200) |
rayvanmechelenInvested
$459.64
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$772.26
Record
13%
44-292 (336)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$384.3
Value
—
PnL
-$384.3
Record
54%
1497-1295 (2792)
GO
GoalLineGhostCTRInvested
$261.88
Value
—
PnL
-$261.88
Record
53%
2235-2015 (4250)
BI
biying99999CTRInvested
$110.98
Value
—
PnL
-$110.98
Record
36%
116-207 (323)
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$78.21
Value
$93.5
PnL
+$15.29
Record
49%
4087-4288 (8375)
Both legs:
Yes$51.0154.6¢+$42.49
No$27.268¢-$27.2
LO
lonmi2511CTR<$100Invested
$16.99
Value
—
PnL
-$16.99
Record
59%
724-498 (1222)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$10.03
Value
—
PnL
-$10.03
Record
31%
376-824 (1200)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x20890bd6...b70c15
Slug
es3-eur-and-2026-11-14-and