Atletico Madrid B vs. CD Teruel: O/U 2.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 100¢ · $790 held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$789.7

Combined PnL

$120.13

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 99.5¢

+86% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$611.67

Total Shares760

Combined PnL+$194.8

Over3 traders

Total Value$178.01

Total Shares603

Combined PnL-$74.67

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 56.1¢	$348.14	$467.95	+$119.81	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 34.3¢	$168.94	$138.98	-$29.96	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 42¢	$19.29	$43.63	+$24.34	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 57.6¢	$88.25	$38.5	-$44.89	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 47¢	$18.16	$36.7	+$18.54	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 42¢	$11.73	$26.53	+$14.8	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 43¢	$13.24	$22.58	+$9.34	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 42¢	$4.21	$9.52	+$5.31	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$4.75	+$2.65	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$0.36	$0.53	+$0.17	35% 628-1146 (1774)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$348.14

Value

$467.95

PnL

+$119.81

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$168.94

Value

$138.98

PnL

-$29.96

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$19.29

Value

$43.63

PnL

+$24.34

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.25

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$44.89

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$18.16

Value

$36.7

PnL

+$18.54

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$11.73

Value

$26.53

PnL

+$14.8

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$13.24

Value

$22.58

PnL

+$9.34

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$4.21

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$5.31

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$2.65

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.53

PnL

+$0.17

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.