Atletico Madrid B vs. CD Teruel: O/U 0.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$539.58

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 99.5¢

+27% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,908

Combined PnL+$174.54

Under5 traders

Total Value$32.76

Total Shares3,281

Combined PnL-$714.12

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 77¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$97.68	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$291.61	$291.61	+$0	99% 651-9 (660)
FE ferdinand2	Overavg 77¢	$95.86	$116.82	+$25.96	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 38¢	$33.42	$83.25	+$49.83	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 23¢	$624.49	$27.15	-$597.34	41% 160-233 (393)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 77¢	$3.75	$4.82	+$1.07	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 23¢	$106.8	$4.64	-$102.15	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 15.3¢	$11.2	$0.73	-$10.47	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$4.3	$0.19	-$4.11	35% 628-1146 (1774)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.1	$0.05	-$0.05	41% 718-1033 (1751)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,336.89

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$97.68

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$291.61

Value

$291.61

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

651-9 (660)

ferdinand2

Over

Invested

$95.86

Value

$116.82

PnL

+$25.96

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$33.42

Value

$83.25

PnL

+$49.83

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$624.49

Value

$27.15

PnL

-$597.34

Record

41%

160-233 (393)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$1.07

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$106.8

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$102.15

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.2

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$10.47

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.3

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$4.11

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

718-1033 (1751)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.