Will Atletico Madrid B win on 2026-11-15?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$822.04

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 94¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares3,075

Combined PnL+$861.86

No5 traders

Total Value$45.27

Total Shares202

Combined PnL-$39.83

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 81.1¢	$2.9K	$2.4K	-$294.48	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 63.5¢	$504.78	$1.7K	+$1.2K	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 64.4¢	$72.81	$25.99	-$46.82	56% 649-514 (1163)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$14.49	$20.87	+$6.38	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 36.8¢	$31.07	$10.13	-$20.94	16% 58-297 (355)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 45.6¢	$18.08	$9.81	+$17.79	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 41.3¢	$33.38	$9.7	-$23.68	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$20.4	$4.09	-$0.19	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 56.8¢	$50.38	$1.03	-$5.11	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$1.88	$0.48	-$1.4	47% 1186-1358 (2544)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$2,865.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$294.48

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$504.78

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.81

Value

$25.99

PnL

-$46.82

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$14.49

Value

$20.87

PnL

+$6.38

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$31.07

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$20.94

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.08

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$17.79

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$33.38

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$23.68

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$0.19

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.38

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$5.11

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$1.4

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.