Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-11-02?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 46¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 2

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$107.12

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 45.5¢

-6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,983

Combined PnL+$186.73

No5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,574

Combined PnL-$79.61

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marchettamakerCTR	Yesavg 48.7¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$164.26	28% 15-39 (54)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Noavg 52¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$97.5	73% 3620-1337 (4957)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$961.92	$966.9	+$15.62	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.9¢	$701.28	$708.92	+$7.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$260.64	$257.98	+$7.98
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 51¢	$875.42	$935.45	+$8.54	50% 26428-26255 (52683)
CA Cannae	Noavg 50¢	$478.7	$493.2	+$14.51	53% 16258-14439 (30697)
us391	Noavg 51¢	$485.12	$470.85	-$14.27	51% 1748-1710 (3458)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$333.6	$350.98	+$17.38	46% 7287-8597 (15884)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 50¢	$100.96	$110.07	+$9.11	54% 5008-4227 (9235)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$103.84	$107.38	+$3.54	58% 48512-34664 (83176)
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$24.05	$25.58	+$0.26	51% 224-219 (443)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$18.13	$18.69	+$0.55	53% 6371-5759 (12130)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$15.63	$16.11	+$0.48	51% 997-961 (1958)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$11.04	$10.92	-$0.12	50% 25000-24720 (49720)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$14.03	$4.86	+$0.39	58% 43600-31711 (75311)

marchettamakerCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,329.43

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$164.26

Record

28%

15-39 (54)

JAMJAMJAM4

Invested

$2,027.98

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$97.5

Record

73%

3620-1337 (4957)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$961.92

Value

$966.9

PnL

+$15.62

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

Both legs:

No$701.2850.9¢+$7.64

Yes$260.6449¢+$7.98

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$875.42

Value

$935.45

PnL

+$8.54

Record

50%

26428-26255 (52683)

Cannae

Invested

$478.7

Value

$493.2

PnL

+$14.51

Record

53%

16258-14439 (30697)

us391

Invested

$485.12

Value

$470.85

PnL

-$14.27

Record

51%

1748-1710 (3458)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$333.6

Value

$350.98

PnL

+$17.38

Record

46%

7287-8597 (15884)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$100.96

Value

$110.07

PnL

+$9.11

Record

54%

5008-4227 (9235)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.84

Value

$107.38

PnL

+$3.54

Record

58%

48512-34664 (83176)

0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.05

Value

$25.58

PnL

+$0.26

Record

51%

224-219 (443)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.13

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.63

Value

$16.11

PnL

+$0.48

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.04

Value

$10.92

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

25000-24720 (49720)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.03

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0.39

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.