Will CD Leganés win on 2026-11-02?

17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 75¢ · $70K held · ends Nov 2

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$70.2K

Combined PnL

-$80.73

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 74.5¢

-1% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 75%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares78,147

Combined PnL-$296.3

No17 traders

Total Value$51.1K

Total Shares67,096

Combined PnL+$215.57

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marchettamakerCTR	Yesavg 24.9¢	$18.9K	$18.6K	-$307.76	28% 15-39 (54)
RN1	Noavg 74.7¢	$11.2K	$11.3K	+$125	54% 58127-50358 (108485)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 75¢	$10.5K	$10.6K	+$70	47% 2622-2922 (5544)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 74.7¢	$13.2K	$8.7K	+$146.58	50% 2583-2580 (5163)
CA Cannae	Noavg 75.3¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$21.7	53% 16258-14439 (30697)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75.6¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$49.99	50% 26428-26255 (52683)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.8¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$53.7	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
SE sentrio	Noavg 75¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$14.13	50% 25000-24720 (49720)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 76¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$32.78	49% 13479-14174 (27653)
FE ferdinand2	Noavg 78¢	$605.67	$601.79	-$3.88	51% 997-961 (1958)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 77.4¢	$585.61	$563.97	-$21.64	58% 48512-34664 (83176)
MO mouzsynapse	Noavg 76¢	$535.82	$539.34	+$3.53	37% 731-1227 (1958)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 22¢	$511.4	$523.03	+$11.62	49% 272-283 (555)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 75¢	$450	$447	-$3	54% 5008-4227 (9235)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 77¢	$395.78	$393.21	-$2.57	50% 34699-34164 (68863)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 74.6¢	$337.22	$336.74	-$0.48	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 74¢	$148	$151	+$3	47% 10054-11163 (21217)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 78¢	$39.39	$39.14	-$0.25	53% 6371-5759 (12130)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 76¢	$27.92	$22.95	-$0.06	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.75	$2.42	-$0.16	50% 7247-7345 (14592)

marchettamakerCTR

Yes

Invested

$18,881.54

Value

$18.6K

PnL

-$307.76

Record

28%

15-39 (54)

RN1

Invested

$11,200

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$125

Record

54%

58127-50358 (108485)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$10,500

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$70

Record

47%

2622-2922 (5544)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$13,229.66

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$146.58

Record

50%

2583-2580 (5163)

Cannae

Invested

$7,796.03

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$21.7

Record

53%

16258-14439 (30697)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,478.78

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$49.99

Record

50%

26428-26255 (52683)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,574.17

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$53.7

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

sentrio

Invested

$1,974.91

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$14.13

Record

50%

25000-24720 (49720)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,660.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$32.78

Record

49%

13479-14174 (27653)

ferdinand2

Invested

$605.67

Value

$601.79

PnL

-$3.88

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$585.61

Value

$563.97

PnL

-$21.64

Record

58%

48512-34664 (83176)

mouzsynapse

Invested

$535.82

Value

$539.34

PnL

+$3.53

Record

37%

731-1227 (1958)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$511.4

Value

$523.03

PnL

+$11.62

Record

49%

272-283 (555)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$450

Value

$447

PnL

-$3

Record

54%

5008-4227 (9235)

SnakeBall

Invested

$395.78

Value

$393.21

PnL

-$2.57

Record

50%

34699-34164 (68863)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$337.22

Value

$336.74

PnL

-$0.48

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$148

Value

$151

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

10054-11163 (21217)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$39.39

Value

$39.14

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$27.92

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

7247-7345 (14592)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 75%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.