Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-11-14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 72¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$53.81

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$969.28

Total Shares1,342

Combined PnL-$56.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$128.77

Total Shares414

Combined PnL+$2.82

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$76.24	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
└ No leg	Noavg 70¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$89.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$717.92	$705.1	-$12.82
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$612.73	$630.81	+$18.08	55% 5362-4302 (9664)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.9¢	$424.11	$432.48	+$8.37
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$188.62	$198.33	+$9.71
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 72¢	$1.6K	$542.45	-$66.68	21% 61-231 (292)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 69.9¢	$262.09	$268.04	+$5.95	37% 957-1658 (2615)
tradecraft	Noavg 68.7¢	$103	$105.75	+$2.75	30% 332-773 (1105)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 27.8¢	$97.95	$100.27	+$2.32	50% 2506-2466 (4972)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$28	$28.5	+$0.5	52% 812-742 (1554)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 70¢	$17.69	$18.07	+$0.38	60% 708-480 (1188)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 68¢	$11.78	$12.22	+$0.43	37% 1018-1700 (2718)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 67¢	$10.15	$10.61	+$0.45	56% 461-367 (828)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Noavg 72¢	$8.95	$9.05	+$0.1	48% 509-544 (1053)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.12	$3.1	-$0.02	48% 2066-2225 (4291)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$3,262.37

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$76.24

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

Both legs:

No$2,544.4570¢+$89.06

Yes$717.9228¢-$12.82

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$612.73

Value

$630.81

PnL

+$18.08

Record

55%

5362-4302 (9664)

Both legs:

Yes$424.1127.9¢+$8.37

No$188.6268¢+$9.71

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$1,596.28

Value

$542.45

PnL

-$66.68

Record

21%

61-231 (292)

LightParadox

Invested

$262.09

Value

$268.04

PnL

+$5.95

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

tradecraft

Invested

$103

Value

$105.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

30%

332-773 (1105)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$97.95

Value

$100.27

PnL

+$2.32

Record

50%

2506-2466 (4972)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

812-742 (1554)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$17.69

Value

$18.07

PnL

+$0.38

Record

60%

708-480 (1188)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$11.78

Value

$12.22

PnL

+$0.43

Record

37%

1018-1700 (2718)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10.61

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

461-367 (828)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

509-544 (1053)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.