Real Valladolid CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 99¢ · $102K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$102.3K

Combined PnL

-$208.82

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$101.6K

Total Shares102,225

Combined PnL-$326.31

Over5 traders

Total Value$781.63

Total Shares103,732

Combined PnL+$117.49

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99.7¢	$101.7K	$101.3K	-$356.92	95% 20-1 (21)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 0.5¢	$627.13	$761.36	+$134.23	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 79¢	$60.83	$73.19	+$12.36	48% 286-304 (590)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 79¢	$51.4	$61.85	+$10.44	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 83¢	$51.94	$59.98	+$8.04	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 99.8¢	$49.9	$49.68	-$0.22	52% 815-747 (1562)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 18.1¢	$31.88	$15.83	-$16.05	37% 957-1658 (2615)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.1¢	$3.51	$3.58	+$0.07	35% 438-797 (1235)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$1.02	$0.54	-$0.48	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$0.61	$0.33	-$0.29	42% 991-1360 (2351)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$101,670.74

Value

$101.3K

PnL

-$356.92

Record

95%

20-1 (21)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$627.13

Value

$761.36

PnL

+$134.23

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$60.83

Value

$73.19

PnL

+$12.36

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$51.4

Value

$61.85

PnL

+$10.44

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$51.94

Value

$59.98

PnL

+$8.04

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$49.9

Value

$49.68

PnL

-$0.22

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.88

Value

$15.83

PnL

-$16.05

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.29

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.