Real Valladolid CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$964.8

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 99.2¢

+41% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,268

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over6 traders

Total Value$267.29

Total Shares1,473

Combined PnL-$114.69

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 62.3¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$624.51	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 72.5¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$334.31	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 96.8¢	$602.03	$611.17	+$9.14	75% 234-76 (310)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 63.3¢	$433.1	$519.86	+$86.76	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 35¢	$255.72	$175.35	-$80.37	37% 957-1658 (2615)
RN1	Underavg 95¢	$129.67	$128.79	-$0.87	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 62¢	$91.14	$111.72	+$20.58	48% 286-304 (590)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 34.9¢	$114	$78.35	-$35.65	36% 928-1642 (2570)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 65.7¢	$32.11	$37.17	+$5.06	56% 462-367 (829)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 2.5¢	$5.61	$6.62	+$1.01	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.5¢	$3.11	$3.11	-$0	35% 438-797 (1235)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 4.8¢	$2.5	$2.76	+$0.26	47% 895-992 (1887)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$1.03	$1.1	+$0.06	52% 815-747 (1562)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,252.58

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$624.51

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,321.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$334.31

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$602.03

Value

$611.17

PnL

+$9.14

Record

75%

234-76 (310)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$433.1

Value

$519.86

PnL

+$86.76

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$255.72

Value

$175.35

PnL

-$80.37

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

RN1

Under

Invested

$129.67

Value

$128.79

PnL

-$0.87

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$91.14

Value

$111.72

PnL

+$20.58

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$114

Value

$78.35

PnL

-$35.65

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$32.11

Value

$37.17

PnL

+$5.06

Record

56%

462-367 (829)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.61

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$1.01

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.11

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.26

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.