Real Valladolid CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 56¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$123.53

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 56¢

-20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$796.56

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL-$57.54

Under9 traders

Total Value$626.57

Total Shares1,745

Combined PnL+$181.07

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 67.9¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$127.28	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
└ Over leg	Overavg 67.9¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$316.84
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.4¢	$495.16	$939.27	+$444.11
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 70¢	$840.7	$783.26	-$57.44	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 32.7¢	$204.62	$281.68	+$77.06	36% 928-1642 (2570)
RN1CTR	Underavg 22.3¢	$135.62	$221.77	+$86.15	55% 5362-4302 (9664)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 20.6¢	$29.63	$49.64	+$20.01	37% 966-1630 (2596)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$30.42	$30.42	+$0	48% 286-304 (590)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 27.9¢	$15.28	$13.42	-$1.86	36% 945-1666 (2611)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 67¢	$13.4	$13.3	-$0.1	52% 812-742 (1554)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 24.6¢	$11.31	$11.95	+$0.64	37% 957-1658 (2615)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$9.52	$9.52	+$0	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$8.55	$7.7	-$0.86	42% 990-1359 (2349)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$0.55	$0.47	-$0.08	35% 438-797 (1235)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,569.17

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$127.28

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

Both legs:

Over$2,074.0167.9¢-$316.84

Under$495.1622.4¢+$444.11

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$840.7

Value

$783.26

PnL

-$57.44

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$204.62

Value

$281.68

PnL

+$77.06

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$135.62

Value

$221.77

PnL

+$86.15

Record

55%

5362-4302 (9664)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.63

Value

$49.64

PnL

+$20.01

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.42

Value

$30.42

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.28

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$1.86

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$13.4

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

812-742 (1554)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.31

Value

$11.95

PnL

+$0.64

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.55

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.86

Record

42%

990-1359 (2349)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$0.08

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.