Real Valladolid CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 0.5

5 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (28%) · Over at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 28%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

-$554.46

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares14,765

Combined PnL+$170.65

Under13 traders

Total Value$453.98

Total Shares7,347

Combined PnL-$725.11

Over — 28%Under — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 98.8¢	$14.2K	$14.4K	+$168.67	21% 61-231 (292)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 71.4¢	$481.48	$635.55	+$154.07	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
└ Under leg	Underavg 16.3¢	$174.51	$343.25	+$168.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 71.4¢	$306.97	$292.29	-$14.67
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 95.2¢	$146.97	$137.47	-$9.5	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 26.4¢	$112.47	$134.12	+$21.65	35% 438-797 (1235)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 95¢	$85.35	$86.83	+$1.48	45% 801-984 (1785)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 20.9¢	$52.79	$84.64	+$31.85	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 22.2¢	$57.06	$78.3	+$21.25	36% 928-1642 (2570)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 98.9¢	$69.47	$69.15	-$0.31	52% 815-747 (1562)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 22.7¢	$56.18	$68.2	+$12.02	37% 966-1631 (2597)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 18.8¢	$697.59	$57.33	-$640.26	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 78.7¢	$38.21	$48.53	+$10.31	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Underavg 1.1¢	$16.5	$21.54	+$5.04	45% 284-341 (625)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$1.67	$5.83	+$4.17	48% 286-304 (590)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 2.5¢	$2.04	$1.24	-$0.8	45% 653-812 (1465)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$1.23	$1.15	-$0.08	36% 945-1666 (2611)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$1.14	$1.08	-$0.06	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 25.8¢	$173.52	$0.34	-$173.18	37% 957-1658 (2615)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$5.62	$0.14	-$5.48	47% 967-1091 (2058)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$1.28	$0.06	-$1.22	24% 55-172 (227)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$14,246.12

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$168.67

Record

21%

61-231 (292)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$481.48

Value

$635.55

PnL

+$154.07

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

Both legs:

Under$174.5116.3¢+$168.74

Over$306.9771.4¢-$14.67

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$146.97

Value

$137.47

PnL

-$9.5

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$112.47

Value

$134.12

PnL

+$21.65

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$85.35

Value

$86.83

PnL

+$1.48

Record

45%

801-984 (1785)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.79

Value

$84.64

PnL

+$31.85

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.06

Value

$78.3

PnL

+$21.25

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$69.47

Value

$69.15

PnL

-$0.31

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.18

Value

$68.2

PnL

+$12.02

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$697.59

Value

$57.33

PnL

-$640.26

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$38.21

Value

$48.53

PnL

+$10.31

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.5

Value

$21.54

PnL

+$5.04

Record

45%

284-341 (625)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.67

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$4.17

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.04

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.8

Record

45%

653-812 (1465)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.08

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$173.52

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$173.18

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.62

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$5.48

Record

47%

967-1091 (2058)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.28

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.22

Record

24%

55-172 (227)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.