Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5)
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Real Valladolid CF (40%) · Real Valladolid CF at 96¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14
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Neutral
Real Valladolid CF
10
Real Valladolid CF 40%
$6.1K
$658.15
76.1¢ → 95.5¢
+26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralReal Valladolid CF at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Real Valladolid CFavg 76.5¢ | $3.6K | $4.1K | +$489.8 | 49% 3811-3974 (7785) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Real Valladolid CFavg 75.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$157.42 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
MO mouzsynapse | Real Valladolid CFavg 75¢ | $252.98 | $259.73 | +$6.75 | 40% 117-175 (292) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | CD Castellónavg 14¢ | $13.54 | $22.25 | +$8.71 | 45% 284-341 (625) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | CD Castellónavg 9.3¢ | $21.23 | $18.35 | -$2.88 | 37% 1022-1710 (2732) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | CD Castellónavg 24¢ | $6 | $6.87 | +$0.87 | 38% 537-879 (1416) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Real Valladolid CFavg 76¢ | $4.94 | $5.18 | +$0.24 | 48% 2067-2229 (4296) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | CD Castellónavg 23¢ | $2.3 | $1.6 | -$0.7 | 37% 966-1631 (2597) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | CD Castellónavg 8¢ | $1.28 | $1.36 | +$0.08 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | CD Castellónavg 17.2¢ | $3.44 | $1.3 | -$2.14 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
Invested
$3,596.23
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$489.8
Record
49%
3811-3974 (7785)
Invested
$1,582.3
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$157.42
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$252.98
Value
$259.73
PnL
+$6.75
Record
40%
117-175 (292)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$13.54
Value
$22.25
PnL
+$8.71
Record
45%
284-341 (625)
Invested
$21.23
Value
$18.35
PnL
-$2.88
Record
37%
1022-1710 (2732)
Invested
$6
Value
$6.87
PnL
+$0.87
Record
38%
537-879 (1416)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$5.18
PnL
+$0.24
Record
48%
2067-2229 (4296)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$0.7
Record
37%
966-1631 (2597)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.36
PnL
+$0.08
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$2.14
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Real Valladolid CF — $4.1K
GoalLineGhost
Real Valladolid CF — $1.7K
mouzsynapse
Real Valladolid CF — $259.73
alpheclabs2
CTRCD Castellón — $22.25
topdogbigboi
CTRCD Castellón — $18.35
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRCD Castellón — $6.87
ferdinand2
Real Valladolid CF — $5.18
MadridTime
CTRCD Castellón — $1.6
Limousin
CTRCD Castellón — $1.36
LightParadox
CTRCD Castellón — $1.3