Real Valladolid CF vs. CD Castellón: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 59¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
2 arb excluded
$10.8K
$123.63
64.2¢ → 58.5¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 64.2¢ | $5.9K | $5.5K | -$430 | 55% 5362-4302 (9664) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 35.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.5K | +$296.31 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 36¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$177.78 | 37% 966-1630 (2596) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Underavg 37.1¢ | $785.34 | $877.97 | +$92.63 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 61.7¢ | $612.13 | $621.76 | +$9.62 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 61.7¢ | $470.42 | $441.96 | -$28.46 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 33.1¢ | $141.72 | $179.8 | +$38.08 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Overavg 59.9¢ | $42.96 | $45.92 | +$2.96 | 50% 2506-2466 (4972) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 59.9¢ | $24.01 | $24.26 | +$0.25 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 34.6¢ | $18.95 | $21.66 | +$2.71 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $29.29 | $19.93 | -$9.36 | 56% 461-367 (828) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $10.5 | $6.77 | -$3.73 | 46% 2602-3088 (5690) |
RN1Invested
$5,923.6
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$430
Record
55%
5362-4302 (9664)
Invested
$2,190.37
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$296.31
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
Invested
$1,066.68
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$177.78
Record
37%
966-1630 (2596)
Invested
$785.34
Value
$877.97
PnL
+$92.63
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
Invested
$612.13
Value
$621.76
PnL
+$9.62
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.96
Value
$45.92
PnL
+$2.96
Record
50%
2506-2466 (4972)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.29
Value
$19.93
PnL
-$9.36
Record
56%
461-367 (828)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$6.77
PnL
-$3.73
Record
46%
2602-3088 (5690)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.