Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Real Valladolid CF vs. CD Castellón end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 31¢ · $93 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$92.91
-$2.72
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJump<$100 | Noavg 69.9¢ | $55.53 | $55.24 | -$0.29 | 52% 812-742 (1554) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $14.93 | $13.59 | -$1.33 | 50% 2506-2466 (4972) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $10.31 | $9.39 | -$0.92 | 36% 945-1666 (2611) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $5.6 | $5.7 | +$0.1 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $4 | $3.92 | -$0.08 | 37% 966-1630 (2596) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $2.5 | $2.55 | +$0.05 | 53% 1340-1169 (2509) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $2.76 | $2.51 | -$0.25 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
Invested
$55.53
Value
$55.24
PnL
-$0.29
Record
52%
812-742 (1554)
Invested
$14.93
Value
$13.59
PnL
-$1.33
Record
50%
2506-2466 (4972)
Invested
$10.31
Value
$9.39
PnL
-$0.92
Record
36%
945-1666 (2611)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$4
Value
$3.92
PnL
-$0.08
Record
37%
966-1630 (2596)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
1340-1169 (2509)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.51
PnL
-$0.25
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.