Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Real Valladolid CF vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to Score

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 41¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$111.95

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 41¢

-17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,376

Combined PnL+$322.59

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,918

Combined PnL-$210.64

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52.3¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$314.46	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
12monkeysCTR	Yesavg 47.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$244.21	41% 18-26 (44)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 57¢	$235.77	$219.16	+$16.92	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Yesavg 56¢	$119.55	$116.8	+$10.23	59% 502-345 (847)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 57.2¢	$92.74	$98.91	+$6.17	48% 286-304 (590)
RN1<$100	Noavg 43¢	$37.72	$39.04	+$1.32	55% 5362-4302 (9664)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$28.57	$28.57	+$0	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 44.8¢	$20.19	$26.83	+$6.63	36% 945-1666 (2611)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$12.4	$12.5	+$0.1	37% 1018-1700 (2718)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 43¢	$6.91	$6.99	+$0.08	37% 966-1630 (2596)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$4.19	$4.33	+$0.14	56% 461-367 (828)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.31	$2.42	+$0.11	47% 895-992 (1887)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,755.66

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$314.46

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

12monkeysCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,512.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$244.21

Record

41%

18-26 (44)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$235.77

Value

$219.16

PnL

+$16.92

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Yes

Invested

$119.55

Value

$116.8

PnL

+$10.23

Record

59%

502-345 (847)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.74

Value

$98.91

PnL

+$6.17

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

RN1<$100

Invested

$37.72

Value

$39.04

PnL

+$1.32

Record

55%

5362-4302 (9664)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.57

Value

$28.57

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$20.19

Value

$26.83

PnL

+$6.63

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.4

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

37%

1018-1700 (2718)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.19

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

461-367 (828)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.11

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.