CE Sabadell FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 1.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 59¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 9

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$336.33

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 59¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,692

Combined PnL-$9.26

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares6,884

Combined PnL+$345.59

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dartanyan150	Overavg 64¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$20	—
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 34.3¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$330.36	—
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 71¢	$655.11	$474.95	+$9.83	—
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 27.2¢	$769.03	$211.48	+$2.36	—
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 33.3¢	$173.31	$179.63	+$6.32	—
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 34¢	$143.32	$143.32	+$0	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 28.7¢	$43.62	$50.9	+$7.28	—
RN1<$100	Overavg 59¢	$21.59	$22.5	+$0.91	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$12.79	$12.13	-$0.66	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$3.39	$3.33	-$0.06	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$0.41	$0.39	-$0.02	—
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$1.35	$0.37	+$0.02	—

dartanyan150

Over

Invested

$2,559.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$20

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,703.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$330.36

Record

—

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$655.11

Value

$474.95

PnL

+$9.83

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$769.03

Value

$211.48

PnL

+$2.36

Record

—

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$173.31

Value

$179.63

PnL

+$6.32

Record

—

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$143.32

Value

$143.32

PnL

+$0

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.62

Value

$50.9

PnL

+$7.28

Record

—

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$21.59

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$0.91

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.79

Value

$12.13

PnL

-$0.66

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.02

Record

—

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.37

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.