Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CE Sabadell FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 0.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 35¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 9

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

14.8¢ → 34.5¢

+133% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,937

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over2 traders

Total Value$441.96

Total Shares570

Combined PnL-$34.03

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 13.3¢	$547.42	$1.3K	+$715.6	52% 236-219 (455)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 16.3¢	$336.56	$603.87	+$267.31	50% 32-32 (64)
dips.	Overavg 80.5¢	$258.37	$248.42	-$9.95	47% 89-100 (189)
RN1	Overavg 85¢	$217.62	$193.55	-$24.08	54% 230-196 (426)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 13¢	$65	$122.5	+$57.5	19% 35-146 (181)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 25.6¢	$81.54	$106.68	+$25.14	25% 84-246 (330)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 20.4¢	$44.4	$53.27	+$8.87	48% 35-38 (73)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 18.1¢	$29.61	$39.98	+$10.37	24% 86-278 (364)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 15.1¢	$13.72	$30.5	+$16.78	24% 81-262 (343)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 15.1¢	$18.49	$30.05	+$11.56	24% 83-258 (341)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$13.51	$27.59	+$14.08	46% 38-45 (83)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$0.99	$2.69	+$1.71	60% 37-25 (62)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$547.42

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$715.6

Record

52%

236-219 (455)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$336.56

Value

$603.87

PnL

+$267.31

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

dips.

Over

Invested

$258.37

Value

$248.42

PnL

-$9.95

Record

47%

89-100 (189)

RN1

Over

Invested

$217.62

Value

$193.55

PnL

-$24.08

Record

54%

230-196 (426)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$65

Value

$122.5

PnL

+$57.5

Record

19%

35-146 (181)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$81.54

Value

$106.68

PnL

+$25.14

Record

25%

84-246 (330)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.4

Value

$53.27

PnL

+$8.87

Record

48%

35-38 (73)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.61

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$10.37

Record

24%

86-278 (364)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.72

Value

$30.5

PnL

+$16.78

Record

24%

81-262 (343)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.49

Value

$30.05

PnL

+$11.56

Record

24%

83-258 (341)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.51

Value

$27.59

PnL

+$14.08

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.99

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$1.71

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 35%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.