Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-11-09?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$22.95

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 77.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,544

Combined PnL+$11.13

Yes2 traders

Total Value$81.82

Total Shares381

Combined PnL+$11.82

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 77.5¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$11.67	—
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$180.64	$190.59	+$9.95	—
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$101.43	$99.53	-$0.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18¢	$76.24	$91.06	+$10.59
LI LightParadox	Noavg 77¢	$126.86	$128.08	+$1.22	—
NM NM-P	Noavg 81¢	$130.16	$127.72	-$2.44	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 78¢	$84.5	$84.49	-$0.01	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$61.92	$72.68	+$10.76	—
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 78¢	$43.97	$43.88	-$0.09	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$8.08	$9.14	+$1.06	—
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 72¢	$7.92	$8.2	+$0.28	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$7.15	$7.45	+$0.3	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$11.76	$3.76	+$0.2	—

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,215.57

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$11.67

Record

—

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$180.64

Value

$190.59

PnL

+$9.95

Record

—

Both legs:

No$101.4380¢-$0.63

Yes$76.2418¢+$10.59

LightParadox

Invested

$126.86

Value

$128.08

PnL

+$1.22

Record

—

NM-P

Invested

$130.16

Value

$127.72

PnL

-$2.44

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$84.5

Value

$84.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.92

Value

$72.68

PnL

+$10.76

Record

—

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$43.97

Value

$43.88

PnL

-$0.09

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.08

Value

$9.14

PnL

+$1.06

Record

—

lryyy<$100

Invested

$7.92

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0.28

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$0.3

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$11.76

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.