Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CE Sabadell FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B end in a draw?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 26¢ · $594 held · ends Nov 9

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$593.62

Combined PnL

$27.37

Smart Money Entry

24.9¢ → 25.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$593.62

Total Shares2,329

Combined PnL+$27.37

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$310.56	$329.97	+$19.41	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$83	$84.66	+$1.66	50% 33803-34054 (67857)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$78.97	$80.55	+$1.58	46% 30988-36414 (67402)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$33.34	$34.01	+$0.67	51% 28824-28178 (57002)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$28.89	$32.03	+$3.14	50% 1635-1617 (3252)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$24.45	$24.91	+$0.46	57% 22806-16903 (39709)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$7.2	$7.5	+$0.45	58% 53792-38296 (92088)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$310.56

Value

$329.97

PnL

+$19.41

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83

Value

$84.66

PnL

+$1.66

Record

50%

33803-34054 (67857)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.97

Value

$80.55

PnL

+$1.58

Record

46%

30988-36414 (67402)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.34

Value

$34.01

PnL

+$0.67

Record

51%

28824-28178 (57002)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.89

Value

$32.03

PnL

+$3.14

Record

50%

1635-1617 (3252)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.45

Value

$24.91

PnL

+$0.46

Record

57%

22806-16903 (39709)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

53792-38296 (92088)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.