Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 5.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 94¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$288.88

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 94.3¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,429

Combined PnL+$397.36

Over8 traders

Total Value$319.87

Total Shares4,481

Combined PnL-$108.48

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 93.8¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$60.89	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 85.6¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$338.96	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 7.5¢	$516.8	$784.76	+$267.96	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ Over leg	Overavg 7.5¢	$266.75	$530.22	+$263.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 83.5¢	$250.05	$254.54	+$4.49
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 95.2¢	$695.25	$665.03	-$30.22	76% 235-76 (311)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 4¢	$84.6	$105.75	+$21.15	48% 286-306 (592)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 10¢	$191.7	$95.85	-$95.85	47% 895-994 (1889)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 31.7¢	$99.92	$78.15	-$21.78	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 61.5¢	$50	$76.74	+$26.74	40% 433-650 (1083)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 37.7¢	$42.35	$32.15	-$10.2	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 73.9¢	$4.17	$5.17	+$1	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 38.6¢	$5.24	$3.88	-$1.36	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.21	+$0.26	45% 805-991 (1796)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 7.7¢	$2.3	$1.5	-$0.8	52% 820-759 (1579)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.8¢	$0.29	$0.38	+$0.09	35% 440-800 (1240)

RN1

Under

Invested

$4,153.83

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$60.89

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,975.59

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$338.96

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$516.8

Value

$784.76

PnL

+$267.96

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

Over$266.757.5¢+$263.47

Under$250.0583.5¢+$4.49

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$695.25

Value

$665.03

PnL

-$30.22

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$84.6

Value

$105.75

PnL

+$21.15

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$191.7

Value

$95.85

PnL

-$95.85

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$99.92

Value

$78.15

PnL

-$21.78

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$76.74

PnL

+$26.74

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.35

Value

$32.15

PnL

-$10.2

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$4.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.24

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$1.36

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.26

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.8

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.09

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.6%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.