Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 3.5

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$57.13

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 100¢

+61% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,977

Combined PnL+$673.68

Under10 traders

Total Value$306.35

Total Shares2,857

Combined PnL-$730.81

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 64.5¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$652.21	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 67¢	$200.67	$199.17	-$1.5	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 84¢	$126.65	$108.52	-$18.13	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ Under leg	Underavg 84¢	$75.59	$76.49	+$0.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 23.9¢	$51.05	$32.02	-$19.03
RN1<$100	Overavg 37¢	$53.18	$64.68	+$11.5	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$46.34	$46.34	+$0	46% 289-344 (633)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 27¢	$14.13	$23.54	+$9.42	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$21.95	$21.26	-$0.69	35% 440-800 (1240)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$67.63	$17.75	-$49.89	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 42¢	$8.4	$9	+$0.6	38% 544-884 (1428)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$6.2	$6.5	+$0.3	36% 933-1644 (2577)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$4.75	$5	+$0.25	45% 805-991 (1796)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$5.32	$4.41	-$0.91	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 64¢	$3.2	$2.95	-$0.25	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 33¢	$2.91	$2.87	-$0.04	36% 948-1669 (2617)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 73¢	$1.9	$1.89	-$0.01	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 31¢	$679.21	$1.1	-$678.11	37% 970-1635 (2605)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,120.68

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$652.21

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$200.67

Value

$199.17

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$126.65

Value

$108.52

PnL

-$18.13

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

Under$75.5984¢+$0.9

Over$51.0523.9¢-$19.03

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$53.18

Value

$64.68

PnL

+$11.5

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.34

Value

$46.34

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

289-344 (633)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$14.13

Value

$23.54

PnL

+$9.42

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.95

Value

$21.26

PnL

-$0.69

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.63

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$49.89

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$8.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.75

Value

PnL

+$0.25

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.32

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$0.91

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$2.91

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$0.04

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$679.21

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$678.11

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.