Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Real Sporting de Gijón end in a draw?

11 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 60¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes60¢No40¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$149.67

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 59.5¢

+37% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 22 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,423

Combined PnL+$229.89

No11 traders

Total Value$475.67

Total Shares896

Combined PnL-$80.23

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 51.5¢	$395.8	$402	+$6.2	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 36.8¢	$219.58	$345.73	+$126.15	37% 970-1635 (2605)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 47.1¢	$276.15	$298.73	+$22.58	36% 948-1669 (2617)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 47.5¢	$172.35	$222.97	+$50.62	36% 933-1644 (2577)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 72¢	$135.55	$116.82	-$18.73	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.1¢	$53.81	$68.57	+$14.76
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$81.74	$48.25	-$33.49
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noavg 58.8¢	$128.11	$91.54	-$36.58	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$84.92	$88.56	+$3.64	41% 144-209 (353)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$91.34	$76.27	-$15.07	52% 820-759 (1579)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 42.2¢	$37.04	$54.85	+$17.81	37% 960-1662 (2622)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$41	$42.53	+$1.53	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$61.11	$38.64	-$22.47	45% 656-817 (1473)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$33.5	$34.75	+$1.25	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$45.6	$33.59	-$12.01	47% 969-1098 (2067)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 39.1¢	$33.25	$31.04	-$2.21	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$26.92	$27.98	+$1.06	47% 895-994 (1889)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$26.5	$27.64	+$1.14	42% 995-1363 (2358)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$21	$18.2	-$2.8	56% 463-370 (833)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 26.3¢	$6.66	$14.92	+$8.26	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$8.67	$8.67	+$0	48% 517-551 (1068)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$7.26	$7.65	+$0.38	45% 805-991 (1796)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$5.51	$5.56	+$0.05	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.47	+$0.17	44% 372-467 (839)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.9	-$0.05	48% 2074-2236 (4310)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$395.8

Value

$402

PnL

+$6.2

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$219.58

Value

$345.73

PnL

+$126.15

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$276.15

Value

$298.73

PnL

+$22.58

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$172.35

Value

$222.97

PnL

+$50.62

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$135.55

Value

$116.82

PnL

-$18.73

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

Both legs:

Yes$53.8145.1¢+$14.76

No$81.7472¢-$33.49

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$128.11

Value

$91.54

PnL

-$36.58

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Invested

$84.92

Value

$88.56

PnL

+$3.64

Record

41%

144-209 (353)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$91.34

Value

$76.27

PnL

-$15.07

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.04

Value

$54.85

PnL

+$17.81

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$41

Value

$42.53

PnL

+$1.53

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$61.11

Value

$38.64

PnL

-$22.47

Record

45%

656-817 (1473)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$33.5

Value

$34.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$45.6

Value

$33.59

PnL

-$12.01

Record

47%

969-1098 (2067)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$33.25

Value

$31.04

PnL

-$2.21

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.92

Value

$27.98

PnL

+$1.06

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$26.5

Value

$27.64

PnL

+$1.14

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$21

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$2.8

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$14.92

PnL

+$8.26

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.67

Value

$8.67

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

517-551 (1068)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$7.26

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.38

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.51

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.17

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 22 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.