RCD Mallorca vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 62¢ · $812 held · ended Nov 14

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$811.99

Combined PnL

$0.33

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 62¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$614.65

Total Shares1,015

Combined PnL-$4.65

Over6 traders

Total Value$197.34

Total Shares368

Combined PnL+$4.98

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 62.3¢	$416.66	$443.93	+$27.27	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 61.9¢	$148.39	$98.29	-$50.11	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 48¢	$47.61	$64.97	+$17.36	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 53.7¢	$77.29	$64.03	-$13.26	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$63.4	$62.34	-$1.06	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$19.19	$29.03	+$9.84	36% 950-1657 (2607)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$17.54	$27.97	+$10.43	37% 968-1674 (2642)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$20	$11.03	-$2.02	40% 438-655 (1093)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 48¢	$6.63	$7.46	+$0.83	48% 912-1002 (1914)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.95	+$1.05	37% 985-1642 (2627)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$416.66

Value

$443.93

PnL

+$27.27

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$148.39

Value

$98.29

PnL

-$50.11

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$47.61

Value

$64.97

PnL

+$17.36

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.29

Value

$64.03

PnL

-$13.26

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.4

Value

$62.34

PnL

-$1.06

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.19

Value

$29.03

PnL

+$9.84

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.54

Value

$27.97

PnL

+$10.43

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$11.03

PnL

-$2.02

Record

40%

438-655 (1093)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$6.63

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$0.83

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$1.05

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.