RCD Mallorca vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 2.5

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (15%) · Over at 83¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 15%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$186.65

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 83¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,017

Combined PnL-$30.25

Under11 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares4,220

Combined PnL-$156.4

Over — 15%Under — 85%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
95 95de	Overavg 75¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$30	55% 12-10 (22)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 24.9¢	$373.21	$382.49	+$9.28	37% 968-1674 (2642)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 27.6¢	$392.7	$327.69	-$65.01	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 27.6¢	$156.24	$130.02	-$26.22	36% 950-1657 (2607)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$78.6	$64.39	-$14.21	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
RN1CTR	Underavg 42.2¢	$108.57	$51.97	-$56.6	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 28.9¢	$45.75	$38.75	-$7	37% 985-1642 (2627)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 40.5¢	$32.45	$34.03	+$1.58	37% 78-132 (210)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 79¢	$13.22	$12.97	-$0.25	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 21.4¢	$4.99	$5.48	+$0.48	36% 455-810 (1265)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$3.53	$5.2	+$1.67	37% 977-1669 (2646)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$0.5	$1.15	+$0.65	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.95	$0.92	-$1.02	42% 1008-1381 (2389)

95de

Over

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$30

Record

55%

12-10 (22)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$373.21

Value

$382.49

PnL

+$9.28

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$392.7

Value

$327.69

PnL

-$65.01

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$156.24

Value

$130.02

PnL

-$26.22

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.6

Value

$64.39

PnL

-$14.21

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$108.57

Value

$51.97

PnL

-$56.6

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.75

Value

$38.75

PnL

-$7

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.45

Value

$34.03

PnL

+$1.58

Record

37%

78-132 (210)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$13.22

Value

$12.97

PnL

-$0.25

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.99

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$0.48

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.53

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$1.67

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.5

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.65

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$1.02

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.