Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-11-14?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 51¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$8.5K
$84.91
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Yesavg 50¢ | $8.2K | $8.3K | +$81.81 | 40% 139-209 (348) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 48.6¢ | $104.98 | $106.92 | +$1.94 | 56% 444-355 (799) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $94.73 | $95.7 | +$0.97 | 53% 2050-1788 (3838) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $14.61 | $14.32 | -$0.29 | 36% 917-1630 (2547) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $12.93 | $13.17 | +$0.24 | 53% 1284-1125 (2409) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $9.59 | $9.86 | +$0.27 | 49% 3713-3859 (7572) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $5 | $4.98 | -$0.02 | 42% 963-1323 (2286) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $3.31 | $3.31 | +$0 | 48% 276-298 (574) |
Invested
$8,181.33
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$81.81
Record
40%
139-209 (348)
Invested
$104.98
Value
$106.92
PnL
+$1.94
Record
56%
444-355 (799)
Invested
$94.73
Value
$95.7
PnL
+$0.97
Record
53%
2050-1788 (3838)
Invested
$14.61
Value
$14.32
PnL
-$0.29
Record
36%
917-1630 (2547)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.93
Value
$13.17
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
1284-1125 (2409)
Invested
$9.59
Value
$9.86
PnL
+$0.27
Record
49%
3713-3859 (7572)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
42%
963-1323 (2286)
Invested
$3.31
Value
$3.31
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
276-298 (574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.