RCD Mallorca vs. Córdoba CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 78¢ · $1000 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$999.61
-$41.91
69.4¢ → 77.5¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 69.4¢ | $818.1 | $816.04 | -$2.06 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $214.98 | $144.77 | -$70.21 | 55% 5380-4339 (9719) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 67¢ | $203.03 | $96.97 | -$106.06 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 17¢ | $11.95 | $47.8 | +$35.85 | |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 68.8¢ | $41.99 | $19.52 | -$22.47 | 48% 2109-2267 (4376) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $27.38 | $12.7 | -$14.68 | 50% 2532-2495 (5027) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $8.53 | $3.37 | -$5.16 | 55% 474-384 (858) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $0.76 | $3.22 | +$2.46 | 37% 985-1642 (2627) |
Invested
$818.1
Value
$816.04
PnL
-$2.06
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$214.98
Value
$144.77
PnL
-$70.21
Record
55%
5380-4339 (9719)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.99
Value
$19.52
PnL
-$22.47
Record
48%
2109-2267 (4376)
Invested
$27.38
Value
$12.7
PnL
-$14.68
Record
50%
2532-2495 (5027)
Invested
$8.53
Value
$3.37
PnL
-$5.16
Record
55%
474-384 (858)
Invested
$0.76
Value
$3.22
PnL
+$2.46
Record
37%
985-1642 (2627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.