Will RCD Mallorca vs. Córdoba CF end in a draw?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$58.66

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 81¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$771.56

Total Shares1,083

Combined PnL-$60.01

Yes6 traders

Total Value$250.46

Total Shares1,095

Combined PnL+$1.35

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 77¢	$770	$710	-$60	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$109.34	$109.34	-$0	37% 364-613 (977)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$70.31	$70.31	+$0	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 70¢	$49.56	$49.71	+$0.14	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$31.71	$32.26	+$0.55	49% 525-557 (1082)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$26.85	$27.69	+$0.84	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 74¢	$9.86	$9.66	-$0.2	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$9	$9	+$0	36% 950-1657 (2607)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 71¢	$2.14	$2.19	+$0.05	45% 381-474 (855)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.9	$1.87	-$0.03	46% 2702-3200 (5902)

cigarettes

Invested

$770

Value

$710

PnL

-$60

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.34

Value

$109.34

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.31

Value

$70.31

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$49.56

Value

$49.71

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.71

Value

$32.26

PnL

+$0.55

Record

49%

525-557 (1082)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.85

Value

$27.69

PnL

+$0.84

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$0.2

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.05

Record

45%

381-474 (855)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.